Universität zu Köln
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
Arbeitsgruppe Faigle/Schrader
Dr. Amer Obeidi
Universtiy of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Department of Management Sciences
Perceptual Graphs Models for Interdependent Strategic Decisions with Asymmetrical Outcomes
Perceptual graphs and meta-stability analysis are two analytical
methodologies developed to model and analyse multiple-participant and
multiple-objective decision situations characterized with asymmetry in
preferences, perceptions and information. A perceptual graph is based on
the way a decision maker forms a mental representation of an interactive
and interdependent strategic situation, or a conflict. The main
ingredients of each graph are: key decision makers (DMs) who can affect
outcomes in the conflict, perceived outcomes, DMs' preferences over
these outcomes, and DMs' awareness of any inconsistent perceptions with
other DMs over these outcomes. A graph model system, on the other hand,
is a consolidation of all DMs' perceptual graphs, taking into account
their possible variants of awareness. Meta-stability analysis is then
applied by analyzing each graph model from the point of view of its
owner, for every focal DM present in the model. New stability
definitions are defined to improve stability analysis algorithm of
outcomes. Of interest to us are blindsided and limited perception
stability concepts, which emphasise the importance of information in
achieving a strategic advantage or avoiding a strategic disadvantage in
conflict. The objective of these analytical methodologies is to
integrate both the descriptive and prescriptive viewpoints in conflict
and provide actionable advice to decision and policy makers to move the
conflict toward desired outcomes.